Will the Volt provide the jolt that turns General Motors' (NYSE: GM) around?
In the interpretation of one critic, Chevrolet's Volt plug-in hybrid may end up being not so much a game-changer as an ice-breaker.
Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer, whose ownership of high-performance sports cars through the years has been exceeded only by, perhaps, Mario Andretti, says he doesn't expect the Volt, Chevrolet's extended-range electric vehicle, to overwhelm the public or generate rave reviews from critics, but those two conclusions still won't blot out Volt's positives.
"The key point, and one many have overlooked, is not the Volt, but the infrastructure behind the Volt," Bauer said. "The Volt as a model will most likely underwhelm, but the processes GM has put in place will pay dividends when advances occur." Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any auto manufacturer.
Amped-up R & D
GM, Bauer says, has now committed a large amount of resources to electric and hybrid technologies, whereas previous commitments were modest. Moreover, "it would take an act of idiocy or $10 a barrel oil" for GM to dismantle its current research platform. Bauer expects neither, and as a result, he expects the 2nd, 3rd and 4th generations of Volt and its companions to achieve both battery power storage and power delivery advances not possible during GM's previous electric vehicle projects.
In the current housing market, it has been hard to find any sort of silver lining, but we do see a little positive news today, as existing home sales in July jumped more than expected, mainly due to lower home prices.
During July, sales of existing homes rose by 3.1%. This was well above the 1.6% that Wall Street was hoping to see, but analysts caution against assuming that this is a sign that the market has finally bottomed out. Despite beating Wall Street estimates, we still have to consider the fact that home sales were over 13% lower than the same period a year ago.
While we can view the July sales figures as promising, we must also take a minute to look at home inventories, and here the picture is not so rosy. Here we see that the number of unsold single family homes is running at all time highs. Currently the market is trying to deal with a total of 4.67 million unsold homes. This is the highest level that we have seen since 1968 when the National Association of Realtors started monitoring the data.
There's a downside and an upside to the new air travel reality in the United States.
The downside: look for more, packed flights as airlines reduce fleets to cut costs by eliminating unprofitable flights, and with it the (remaining) empty seats on planes, The New York Times reported.
The upside: airlines are required to offer a greater payout, if you're bumped from a flight. Airlines' load factor seen increasing
Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks U.S. airlines' load factor - - the percent of seats sold per flight - - is likely to increase from its current 79% sector average. "Basic math. Considerably fewer planes and roughly the same amount of travelers means more flights close to capacity."
And overcapacity. Bauer said he expects bumps - - people with a boarding pass who can't fly because the airline overbooked the plane - - to increase during the next six months. However, bumps may trend lower in 2H 2009, if passenger traffic slows on the heels of the U.S. economic slowdown, he said.
In any event, if you're bumped, your air travel-denominated compensation will be better than it was three years ago, Bauer said, due to federally-required higher payouts. [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]
The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is supposed to be the hottest handset on the planet, but in some parts of the world it has very little appeal at all.
The market in India is teaching Apple a lesson or two. The first is that price is an issue. No matter how much people love the product, there is a point at which the cost is simply too high.
According toMarketWatch reports from India, "The princely sum of 31,000 rupees ($720) for the 8-gigabyte iPhone and 36,100 rupees ($840) for the 16 GB version was too high for even such a cool gizmo." If Apple is going to make any progress in one of the world's largest markets, it is going to have to solve that problem. Otherwise, more reasonably priced products from other phone makers such as market leader Nokia (NYSE: NOK) are going to continue to rule the roost.
The other issue in India is that it has very little 3G infrastructure. That makes the new version of the iPhone less appealing. Apple can do very little to solve this problem, but it does say that there are some limits that even the most popular product can't overcome.
Apple is about to launch the iPhone is Russia and sales are expected to be good there, but the company's goal of getting a quick start in every important market may be thwarted.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Gas prices dropped another 15 cents over the last two weeks. That news sounds good, but it really isn't. Gas is still much too high and is staggering compared with a year or two ago. According to the AP, a gallon of regular is down to $3.70, and premium is $3.95.
While the improvement would seem to be good for the economy, gas prices are still just too high. Filling the tank on an SUV or pickup is probably a $70 ticket. Even a small, fuel-efficient car can't stop at a service station for much less than $30.
The media reports on gas prices are misleading. They are about the modest drop in costs but fail to look at the numbers relative to the period when a gallon was $2. In some parts of the U.S., prices were that low in early 2007.
It is unlikely that falling gas prices will do much to improve consumer economics until the register reads under $3. Until then, the consumer will stay pinched and won't be over at the mall buying new clothes.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
August is expected to be another troubling month for domestic cars sales. U.S.-based car companies have seen sales off over 20% in some recent months. If August does not show some minor improvement, the rest of the year could be more of a disaster than expected.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) has offered amazingly attractive incentives on its vehicle line including "employee pricing," cash back and low interest rates. With all of those in play, the largest U.S. car company should have a reasonably good month. Or, that is what the market is hoping for.
The Wall Street Journal writes that J.D. Power & Associates expect August sales to be a modest improvement from July. If that does not happen, it will be a catastrophe. It would say that even aggressive pricing cannot bring wary consumers back into the car market; that falling consumer income cannot overcome the allure of even the best deals.
The potential car customer may be so broke that he can't even afford to take a car for free. The gas will cost too much.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) success over the next decade depends, to some extent, on moving its search products from PCs to the new generation of mobile devices. It will go a long way toward getting a head start on that in a deal with Verizon (NYSE: VZ).
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The deal under discussion, which would make Google the default search provider on Verizon devices and give it a share of ad revenue, is aimed at dramatically simplifying what is now a confusing set of search options for cellphone users."
The news is not good for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). After losing the PC search battle, their next, and perhaps last, option to pick up substantial business is on mobile handsets. Because Verizon has about 70 million subscribers in the U.S., a large opportunity to gain share from Google is gone.
Deals with cellular carriers are overrated. Even if the default search engine is on a handset, users can still access any other search company through the phone's web browser.
If PC habits carry over to the wireless world, Google has already won the new war. Few people are likely to change search preferences from device to device.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
PC and chip companies have been trying to get TV viewers to use internet functions on their home entertainment systems for years. The problem may be that people who watch television are old. Consumers who use PCs are young. That has not stopped repeated attempts to marry the two.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) are making another run at putting the two technologies together and it will probably fail. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The pair outlined software tools, based on Yahoo technology, to help companies deliver Web content alongside TV programming. The software complements a new chip from Intel designed to enable interactive features on TVs."
Under this new plan, web content will sit in a bar at the bottom of the screen.
TV viewers already see information at the bottom of their TV monitors. Most business news channels like CNBC use the space to run stock quotes. Sports programming often scrolls scores in that section of the screen. Those bits of information may be useful, but TV is still a passive experience.
People who sit in front of a television set want information and entertainment. They do not want to have to make any effort to get those things. The PC has hundreds of applications that involve a great deal of effort. The keyboard is an "active" feature. People sitting in lounge chairs to watch the tube want to fall asleep.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
First Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) tried to cut off customers using peer-to-peer file sharing services. They ate up too much bandwidth and slowed down the cable company's network. At least that is what Comcast said.
The FCC did not like the Comcast approach and asked it to fix the matter. Comcast still says it has congestion problems and wants to handle them using a new method. According toBloomberg, the cable guys "plans to slow service to its heaviest Internet users during periods of congestion after regulators ordered the company to devise a new method for managing its Web traffic."
If the traffic load in one area of the network becomes too great, big users could see their service dialed back to slower speeds for as long as 20 minutes.
Consumers will get bent out of shape because they reason that everyone should have unlimited access to the Internet, especially if they are paying $30 a month for broadband. But, that avoids an acknowledgment of the practical parts of the system. Internet "pipes" are only so big. If they become clogged, none of the users win.
The Comcast plan is fair and reasonable. If people want super-fast speeds all the time, they should pay for it. That is the only way for the cable company to undertake the work of upgrading its network without hurting its shareholders.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Despite the onset of the latest high energy price era, it goes without saying that the car will remain the main mode of transportation in the United States as the 21st century progresses.
First mass-produced on a national scale by Henry Ford, subsidized by the construction and expansion of the public interstate highway system after World War II, and immortalized by such films as George Lucas's American Graffiti (1973), the car and car culture is intrinsic to modern American life.
The car fuel alternatives
Cheap oil is not intrinsic, however, and that's a major reason why the nation is exploring car / vehicle fuel alternatives. Many options exist, each with strengths / weaknesses, and currently there's no clear winner.
Hence, in a very real sense, your say in the matter will play an important role in determining what fuel most Americans will use for car transportation in the decades ahead.
As the housing market continues to struggle, there is further evidence today that things have yet to turn around as mortgage applications last week fell to lows not seen in nearly eight years.
Today's data came from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which showed that its application index dropped down to 419.3 last week, its lowest level since all the way back to December 2000. Just since this past February the index is down by 61%.
For those of us who are anxiously awaiting any positive signs for the housing market, this week has proven to be anything but hopeful. Today's news comes on the heels of data yesterday that showed new home construction during July was at its lowest levels in over the past 17 years.
Recent reports reveal a surprising amount of criminal activity in the mortgage business. This is particularly true in states whose names end in the letter A, such as Florida and Nevada. Two particular forms of illegal behavior are the licensing of mortgage brokers with criminal records and homebuilders' use of bribes -- or 'incentives' -- to encourage people to buy over-priced houses without disclosing them to lenders as required by law. Think I'm kidding?
DSNews reports that last week, Florida's mortgage commissioner resigned after it was revealed that he granted mortgage brokerage licenses to people with criminal records. Specifically, DSNews wrote that Don Saxon, who had been Chairman of the Office of Financial Regulation (OFR) had "allowed more than 10,000 people with criminal histories – including bank robbers, racketeers, defrauders, embezzlers, identity thieves, and tax evaders, among others – to work in Florida's mortgage lending industry between 2000 and 2007. These convicted felons had expropriated more than $85 million from lenders and homeowners during that time."
Meanwhile, things were not much more legal in Nevada. That's where the Wall Street Journal reports that the Las Vegas, NV branch of home builder Centex (NYSE: CTX) paid off the credit cards and mortgages of potential borrowers to entice people to buy homes priced from $350,000 to $550,000. The FBI is investigating allegations that Centex did not always disclose these 'incentives' to lenders as required by law.
When should the FDA pull a drug off the market? When one person dies from side-effects? How about two or three?
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLN) produce a highly successful diabetes drug called Byetta. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has received six new reports of patients developing a dangerous form of pancreatitis while taking Byetta."
Two of the patients died.
The drug makers said that the poor results were very rare. The people who got sick probably view it a little differently.
There have been questions for some time about whether the FDA does an effective job of regulating drug companies. The problems with Byetta say that the answer is "no." A drug, which causes even one death, yet stays on the market speaks volumes about how the consumer's interests are cast aside.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
One of the few hopes the U.S. car companies have had is that they have been perceived as closing the quality gap with Japanese models. Recent JP Power data shows Detroit running in a dead heat with imports in the consumer satisfaction race.
That bubble has been at least partially burst due to new information from the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index. According to the AP, "U.S. car buyers are growing less satisfied with their purchases from domestic automakers while their Asian and European competitors continue to improve."
In the new survey, BMW and Lexus tied for the top spot followed by Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota (NYSE: TM). Several brands from GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) dropped down the rankings.
At the risk of stating the obvious, Detroit is in such deep trouble that a perceived drop in the quality of its cars can only make its recovery more difficult. There are several ways around that, but none of them are very palatable.
GM yesterday introduced buyer incentives across most of its brands. That means its margins on those vehicles will be lower. It may pick up some market share, but any victory there will be costly. The U.S. car companies are cutting their marketing budgets, so they cannot "advertise" their way out of the problem.
Effectively giving cars away can certainly help hurdle the quality barrier, but losing a lot more money could sink a large U.S. auto company.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that producer prices launched upward at a 1.2% monthly rate in July. The rise in the PPI -- which was 0.7 percentage points faster than the 0.5% rate economists expected -- was the result of rising wholesale prices for energy spreading to "automobiles, prescription drugs and capital equipment."
Since the price of oil has dropped 24% from $147 to $112, should we all be relieved that July's number is a temporary blip? Let's hope so, because if not, rising wholesale prices make it even harder for businesses to make a profit when consumer demand is weak.
These higher wholesale prices mean that businesses have two options to maintain profits: keep prices the same but cut costs in other areas by finding productivity improvements, cutting back on payrolls and salaries and the likes, or raise prices to offset those rising costs.