The GDP number for the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% this morning. The market liked that, but not as much as people might have guessed. The Dow jumped up 200 points, which is substantial, but not an all-out rally.
The problem is probably that no one in his right mind thinks that Q3 and Q4 will be nearly as good. There is too much evidence of falling employment, rising prices, mortgage defaults, and slowing business spending. Being happy about the past is nice, but not when it is coupled with worry about the future. Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA: 11,515.18 (+1.85%)
NASDAQ: 1,300.65 (+1.22%)
S&P500: 2,411.64 (+1.48)
10-Year Bond: 3.7950% (+.0230%)
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) continued their spikes up. The market is still enamored of the fact that the companies might avoid a government bail-out, which would wipe out common shareholders. Freddie was up about 10% and Fannie 15%.
The monoline insurers got a goose. MBIA (NYSE:MBI) said it would reinsure nearly $200 billion of municipal bonds backed by FGIC Corp. MBI shares jumped 34% to $16.14.
The excitement of the day boiled over into most of the financial stocks. Investors think there will be no recession. Bank write-off are over. All is well with the world.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The protracted housing slump that has devastated U.S. home prices now appears to have fully-enveloped the United Kingdom. Home prices in the United Kingdom in August fell at their fastest pace in two decades (pdf), U.K.-based mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society announced Thursday.
On a year-over-year basis, the average price of a U.K. home plummeted 10.5% to $301,500 or 164,654 British pounds in August, NBS said. Further, it was the first year-over-year double-digit decline in the U.K. since 1990.
London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Thursday the August U.K. housing data, "is just dreadful."
"Housing in the U.K. is becoming a bit of a 'magical mystery tour,' to borrow a phrase from The Beatles. For a month or so, we thought the declines in home prices had moderated. Apparently not," Chandler said. "Tighter lending requirements and real concern about the economy have sapped sales and it's really showing up in the price data."
A sluggish U.S. economy that grows at 3.3% in Q2? What's going on here?
The U.S. Commerce Department Thursday revised its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 3.3% from the previously-estimated 1.9%, but economist David H. Wang remains a skeptic regarding the appearance of an economic recovery.
"Don't write home or e-mail home that we have 'blue skies' ahead regarding the U.S economy because the skies remain uncertain and stormy looking. If you take away the export gains, the economy is still pretty weak," Wang said. "Also, one quarter does not a recovery make, and we'll get final data on Q2 GDP in September [September 26]."
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the preliminary Q2 GDP statistic to total 2.7%. The U.S. economy grew at a 0.9% annualized pace in Q1 and contracted 0.2% in Q4 2007. Q2 GDP data fleeting?
Wang said an improvement in exports and inventory accumulation strengthened GDP in Q2, but other factors suggest "it will be difficult, if not impossible to match that GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4."
Stock futures were flattish Thursday morning as oil prices rose due to continued concern over Gustav. However, some retailers have posted better-than-expected earnings. Still, there are several economic reports due before the open that could sway sentiment either way, including revised GDP for the second quarter. [Update: Futures turned positive after the report U.S. gross domestic product grew by 3.3% in the second quarter - much higher than previously stated.]
U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) posted double the quarterly profit from a year ago on Thursday, benefiting from strong international sales and solid tourist spending at its New York flagship store. Net profit was $80.8 million, or 63 cents per share, in its fiscal second quarter, up from $40.5 million, or 29 cents per share a year earlier, and beating estimates of 55 cents per share. Revenue grew 11%. Tiffany also raised its 2008 profit outlook on strong sales in Europe and Asia and expected improvement in the U.S. TIF shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
On the other hand, department store retailer Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported a 62% plunge in second-quarter net profit to $65 million, or 50 cents per share. Excluding a gain, Sears earned 21 cents, trailing some analysts' estimates by 15 cents. Chief Executive Bruce Johnson said the results were affected by the "slowing economy." It seems some, though, still have confidence in Chairman Lampert.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), the mortgage finance giant, shook up its executive ranks Wednesday. "Its chief financial officer and two other top executives are leaving the company. Three current executives were promoted to replace them." CEO Mudd kept his job. Shares of Fannie and sibling Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have been rising after concern over a government bailout lessened. In premarket trading, FNM and FRE shares are up over 6% and 5% respectively.
It's a policy wonk truism arguing that when uncertainty abounds, sometimes the best action is no action. And, one could argue, today's potential home buyers and sellers would be wise to heed the Beltway axiom.
A case of the Case-Shiller jitters
Economist Peter Dawson was hoping for Case-Shiller house price statistics in July that were easier on the eye. Dawson was disappointed: the Case-Shiller Index of 20 major metropolitan areas plunged 15.9% from July 2007 (pdf). Prices in the 10-city index plummeted a record 17.0% from July 2007.
"The July Case-Shiller data is about as bad as it gets. It shows a housing sector where prices remain in free-fall in just about every market, save a few, such as Charlotte, North Carolina and Dallas," Dawson said. "The housing bottom has not occurred and it's not near."
So given the above, what's the best stance regarding housing? For sellers, Dawson said if one has to sell for a job relocation, a sale invariably has to occur. But for those who have a three-year or longer sales horizon, postponing a sale may net a better price, providing the U.S economy recovers in 2009, he said.
For buyers, Dawson said "time is on the buyer's side" in most markets. "At this stage, lease or rent through at least June 2009," Dawson said. "In most major markets, prices are likely to be lower by next spring than they are today."
TOL opened this morning at $22.42. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.33 and a high of $23.43. As of 12:15, TOL is trading at $23.43, up $1.10 (4.5%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just seven weeks as long as TOL is above $17.50 at October expiration. Toll would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
From the end of March to the end of June, problem banks, as they are defined by the FDIC, rose from 90 to 117. These are banks with a high percentage of "non-current" loans.
The trouble is that the agency may not have enough money to cover the possible upcoming bank closings. So the FDIC said it "might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an expected wave of bank failures," according toThe Wall Street Journal.
At least two implication arise from this. The most obvious is that the credit crisis is spreading. More banks are having trouble with mortgage, business and commercial real estate loans. Given the spreading effects of the recession, that is not odd.
The other is the extent to which the taxpayer will be hit because of lax bank management. Money from the Treasury is eventually money from every man, woman and child in the country. But who cares? After bailouts of banks and brokerages and possible help for car companies, what is a few more billion?
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning on fear Tropical Storm Gustav's path may pose a threat to refinery activity along the Gulf of Mexico coastline and some would have to shut down. Indeed, oil prices rose to above $117 a barrel Wednesday. Also in focus today is the upcoming durable goods order to be reported before the opening bell. Meanwhile, the FDIC is considering borrowing funds from the Treasury, amid an expected wave of bank failures. Nine banks have failed so far this year, and the number of troubled U.S. banks rose 30% to 117 in the second quarter. [Update: Futures turned positive after durable goods unexpectedly gained.]
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), which stocks jumped big Tuesday, both had several ratings cut by Standard & Poor's. Still, both stocks seem to continue their climb in premarket with Fannie shares up 7.5% and Freddie's up 10%. At least two analysts, from Citigroup and Goldman said Tuesday the situation isn't as bad as it may seem.
From financials to toys: A federal jury awarded Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) $100 million in damages on Tuesday in a federal copyright lawsuit against MGA Entertainment Inc., the maker of the saucy Bratz dolls.
Moving to pharmaceuticals, Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) shares are down 10% and 1% respectively in premarket trading after four more patients taking their Byetta diabetes medication have died. Baird downgraded Amylin from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target from $37 to $27. Soleil downgraded AMLN from Hold to Sell.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of its recent meeting on August 5. The event itself was a bit of an anti-climax because of the comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the recent Wyoming summit.
Everyone knew that although members of the Fed are quite concerned about inflation, they are even more concerned about the deteriorating economic situation. This was clearly indicated in comments made at the Jackson Hole meeting. In addition, as I mentioned in my earlier analysis, the decisions by Fed Governors Plosser and Stern to vote to leave rates unchanged instead of dissenting indicates the gravity of the economic and monetary problems facing the United States. This was almost a complete reversal of the recent hawkish comments by both individuals.
The FOMC minutes actually give us insight into the thinking of the Fed. The Fed is very concerned about the fragile nature of the economy. It clearly believes that a rise in interest rates prematurely could damage the already battered credit situation.
However, the Fed is concerned about the inflation situation. It is particularly concerned that inflation could become embedded in expectations. This phenomenon is much more difficult to control once it begins.
It believes that the weak economic situation, combined with the recent decline in oil prices, may help to resolve this dilemma in the coming months. It may require a rise in interest rates if this does not occur.
For all practical purposes, today was a win when you consider how Hurricane Gustav's threat to the oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico is looking like a real scare. The August 5 FOMC Minutes showed very little chance that rate hikes are imminent, but they showed a clueless Fed.
Surprisingly, there was a slight improvement in consumer confidence, and new home sales in July rose slightly on falling prices. Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,413.11 (+26.86) NASDAQ 2,361.97 (-3.62) S&P 500 1,271.39 (+4.55) 10YR T-NOTE 3.784% (-0.007%) 52-week lows Top Analyst Calls
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) rose 6% to $61.54 after the company said that it was going to buy back up to $5 billion common stock, or 18% of the company, out to August 2011. The company is also increasing its capital spending plan for 2009 and beyond. Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) rose more than 10% to $15.65 after the close because Jim Cramer called this one as having government backing since Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband invested $50,000 to $100,000 in this stock in 2007.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) traded higher by more than 6% to $28.18 after announcing that it was going to buy back up to $1 billion in common stock after its $1 billion buy-back plan from November 2007 has already been utilized.
Today's housing news on new home sales in July sounds eerily similar to the post I wrote yesterday about July existing home sales. In both cases, we are given a quick headline that sounds like good news, but once you dig into the details a little deeper you realize that the news is just not as pretty as it first sounds.
Let's first take a look at the positive headline: New home sales rise in July. Great, this is exactly the sort of news that the market needs to hear. After all, weakness in the housing market has been a major catalyst to the current economic slowdown, so any good news is like a breath of fresh air. During July the market saw a jump of 2.4%. Not too shabby.
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday. Following Monday's broad sell-off and volatile session, which was also marked by low volume, today might not be different -- volatile and low volume. Several reports are in focus today, specifically some housing data that could shine more light on the sector, and consumer confidence, which could also move stocks. Meantime, oil prices declined and the dollar strengthened against major currencies.
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) shares are down over 3% in premarket trading after the mining giant reported fiscal first-half profit more than doubled. RTP's acquisition of Alcan and soaring commodity prices helped Rio achieve the results. RTP shares have been declining due to worldwide slower growth.
Meanwhile, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) shares were 2.4% higher in after-hours after it announced a plan to buy back up to $5 billion of stock.
Staying with share buybacks, Coach (NYSE: COH) are also 1.7% higher in premarket trading after announcing a buyback program of up to $1 billion, which follows the completion of a similar repurchase.
And of course, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH). Shares of the embattled banker are rising this morning following speculation that Kohlberg Kravis Roberts may be interested in buying Neuberger Berman, according to CNBC, while Blackstone Group backed away.
Trading today was an obvious broad-based sell off in the equity markets. But looking for a main theme or a major culprit was not so easy as we are in the quietest non-Christmas week of the year. Existing home sales did post a modest rise, but the prices paid were worse and dropping still.
Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,386.25 (-241.81) NASDAQ 2,365.59 (-49.12) S&P 500 1,266.85 (-25.35) 52-WEEK LOWS Top Analyst Calls
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) was a disaster today following Fitch putting the insurance giant on review for possible downgrades to the bond ratings. Shares closed down over 5% at $18.78 on active volume at 45 million shares.
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (NASDAQ: GILT) was the big loser in merger-land today. The company missed earnings estimates and also was notified that the proposed buyer was not going to honor the $11.40 price. Shares closed down over 7% at $8.01, but that was much better than the lows and indications of the day.
As politicians and Obama talked up the need for mortgage GSE's (with an undefined structure), shares of Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) rose 17% to $3.29.
In the current housing market, it has been hard to find any sort of silver lining, but we do see a little positive news today, as existing home sales in July jumped more than expected, mainly due to lower home prices.
During July, sales of existing homes rose by 3.1%. This was well above the 1.6% that Wall Street was hoping to see, but analysts caution against assuming that this is a sign that the market has finally bottomed out. Despite beating Wall Street estimates, we still have to consider the fact that home sales were over 13% lower than the same period a year ago.
While we can view the July sales figures as promising, we must also take a minute to look at home inventories, and here the picture is not so rosy. Here we see that the number of unsold single family homes is running at all time highs. Currently the market is trying to deal with a total of 4.67 million unsold homes. This is the highest level that we have seen since 1968 when the National Association of Realtors started monitoring the data.
Gas prices dropped another 15 cents over the last two weeks. That news sounds good, but it really isn't. Gas is still much too high and is staggering compared with a year or two ago. According to the AP, a gallon of regular is down to $3.70, and premium is $3.95.
While the improvement would seem to be good for the economy, gas prices are still just too high. Filling the tank on an SUV or pickup is probably a $70 ticket. Even a small, fuel-efficient car can't stop at a service station for much less than $30.
The media reports on gas prices are misleading. They are about the modest drop in costs but fail to look at the numbers relative to the period when a gallon was $2. In some parts of the U.S., prices were that low in early 2007.
It is unlikely that falling gas prices will do much to improve consumer economics until the register reads under $3. Until then, the consumer will stay pinched and won't be over at the mall buying new clothes.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The GDP number for the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% this morning. The market liked that, but not as much as people might have guessed. The Dow jumped up 200 points, which is substantial, but not an all-out rally.
A sluggish U.S. economy that grows at 3.3% in Q2? What's going on here?
There is an old axiom among lobbyists 
From the end of March to the end of June, problem banks, as they are defined by the FDIC, rose from 90 to 117. These are banks with a high percentage of "non-current" loans.
Today's housing news on 
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday. Following Monday's broad sell-off and volatile session, which was also marked by low volume, today might not be different -- volatile and low volume. Several reports are in focus today, specifically some housing data that could shine more light on the sector, and consumer confidence, which could also move stocks. Meantime, oil prices declined and the dollar strengthened against major currencies.
Trading today was an obvious broad-based sell off in the equity markets. But looking for a main theme or a major culprit was not so easy as we are in the quietest non-Christmas week of the year. Existing home sales did post a modest rise, but the prices paid were worse and dropping still. 
In the current housing market, it has been hard to find any sort of silver lining, but we do see a little positive news today, as 
Gas prices dropped another 15 cents over the last two weeks. That news sounds good, but it really isn't. Gas is still much too high and is staggering compared with a year or two ago. 
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