The New York Times reports that since we've had such a catastrophic run with home mortgages, it's time to watch the collapse of commercial ones. The same names surface when it comes to the collapse of our financial system -- in the case of commercial mortgages Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) ($25.1 billion), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($22.1 billion), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($40 billion in commercial mortgages and property), and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) ($19.1 billion) are among the biggest holders. They are also big names in Auction Rate Securities (ARS).
Why do people think that commercial real estate could be tanking? Here are four reasons:
Declining property prices. The Times reports that the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index has dropped 12% since its peak last October.
Commercial mortgage write-downs. According to the Times, Morgan Stanley reported commercial mortgage write-downs of $400 million and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) said it would take at least $1 billion worth of such write-downs.
Potential Riverton default. The Times reports that Riverton, a 1,230 unit Harlem development, was premised on the idea that developers could convert "lower-priced rentals to apartments priced closer to the higher market average." But the Times reports that Monday Fitch "issued a negative watch on part of the Riverton Apartments trust" since the developers had not made much progress -- threatening commercial mortgages that Citi and Deutsche Bank hold.
Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) was started as Outperform at Baird, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reported that Telus (NYSE: TU) was raised to Buy at UBS.
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning, pointing to a weaker start Thursday following a reprieve Wednesday. Concerns over financials toll center stage again as oil continued to swing higher. Some economic data released later today may affect trading as well: Philadelphia-area poll of activity for August, leading indicators for July and weekly jobless claims.
Investors continued to fear nationalization of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), each of which declined 27% and 22% Wednesday respectively. FNM and FRE are declining about 4.5% and 9% respectively in premarket trading. Jim Cramer thinks trading in the shares should be stopped for fear of manipulation as the short-selling rules ended.
Staying with financials, Citi lowered its third-quarter earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) as it fears further writedowns, and a weaker business flow in addition to the seasonal slowdown. It cut its price target on Lehman to $35 from $50, but kept as Buy. Citi forecasts write-downs of $2.9 billion for Lehman, $1.8 billion for Goldman and $1.7 billion for Morgan Stanley.
As if that wasn't enough to raise concerns, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve called Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) last month to check a rumor that the bank was preparing to pull a line of credit for Lehman Brothers, which CS told the FED wasn't true. At least this shows the Fed is serious about taking and implementing the moral authority it should be.
Piper Jaffray downgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also reported that Bank of America intiated Amerigroup (NYSE: AGP ) at Neutral.
In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
The industry unleashed a massive PR campaign. It convinced you that it saw the error of its ways. They had "reformed." You could trust them again with your hard earned assets.
And you did. Money flowed back in the coffers of these firms and others.
Bloomberg News reports that two more big banks -- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) have made offers of $7 billion to 30,000 holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- those long-term securities whose yields reset in weekly auctions until the auctions failed this February. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also agreed to $60 million worth of fines. This brings to five the number of large firms that have settled so far. The Wall Street Journal reports that of the big firms that have yet to settle, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is proving to be among the most unhelpful to its clients.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal's James Stewart, who first got me writing about the ARS catastrophe, has finally broken his silence. And he seems to think that the ARS mess is much worse than he originally thought back in February. Stewart was shocked that brokers were unloading this toxic waste on customers so they could get it off of their books and out of the accounts of their executives. Stewart's reaction struck me as surprisingly naive -- particularly considering his long track record of reporting on Wall Street misdeeds.
Nevertheless, the problems with the frozen ARS continue to stress out investors who fell victim to Wall Street's chicanery. Among the top 10 municipal ARS issuers, the following have yet to offer any restitution to ARS holders (the value of their 2007 ARS issuance is in parentheses):
CNNMoney notes that Morgan Stanley said it would offer to repurchase all ARS "held by individuals, charities and small and medium-sized business with accounts of $10 million or less at the bank." Morgan Stanley will begin to start buying back $4.5 billion worth of ARS on September 30th and will "make its best effort to provide liquidity solutions" for institutional investors by the end of 2009. But New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo is not satisfied with Morgan Stanley's proposal.
Meanwhile, the list of big ARS issuers that have not settled grows shorter. Here are six holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says all that money has to go somewhere, and this is a likely destination.
Clash of the ideals! Oil's down, and what can you buy when there's so much bad bank news? What can you buy when Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) is boosting reserves and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) (Cramer's Take) is still being pursued by authorities and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) says July stunk and UBS (NYSE: UBS) (Cramer's Take) is so tarnished that you can't believe it was once the most conservative blue chip out there.
The answer is tech, of course!
Wait a second. Would anyone mind if we actually had a reason to buy tech beyond the Kindle, the device that made Citigroup gaga about Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (Cramer's Take) -- not that you needed a device to do that.
Sure, we have pre-seasonality. Remember, you are supposed to buy tech at the end of the summer, not that anyone waits that long.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near. [Update 9:09: Seems lower oil wasn't enough to offset financials' concerns and futures now indicate stocks could start flat to lower.] JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it suffered more substantial third-quarter losses related to the hard-hit mortgage sector than it did in the second quarter and had to take a $1.5 billion write-off on mortgage-backed securities and loans.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) said late Monday that it will offer to buy back up to $4.5 billion of auction-rate securities from retail clients, following similar announcements from rivals. The broker also said it will make whole any losses suffered by retail clients who bought auction-rate securities through the firm and try to provide liquidity solutions for institutional investors.
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, The Boston Globe reports that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) is poised to announce that it will redeem $19.4 billion worth of ARS and pay $150 million in fines, split between Massachusetts and New York. UBS follows Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), which yesterday announced plans to redeem over $17 billion worth of ARS.
Why should you care? If you have money frozen in these securities, the reason is obvious. If not, what's happening here suggests three lessons for investors:
Don't buy without knowing. Before you buy anything a broker is trying to sell you, read the prospectus, find out how the broker will be compensated for the sale, and if you don't understand what you're buying, don't buy it. Many people bought based on broker pitches that ARSs were cash equivalents, highly liquid, and yielded slightly more than money market funds. It turns out that ARS auctions started failing publicly last September.
If your money becomes illiquid, make alot of noise. ARS investors contacted government officials and the media in an organized way. The public attention led to investigations by legal officials. That attention uncovered UBS e-mails demonstrating that brokerage firms decided to dump the toxic waste from their own books to the accounts of their individual customers -- even as their executives dumped the securities from their own portfolios.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has decided it does not want to take the risk of laying out more money on many of the home equity loans it has given to customers. Many of the houses backing these funds are now worth less than their mortgages. According to Bloomberg, Morgan "told thousands of clients this week that they won't be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines."
Since most other banks and brokerages with similar loans out to their customers have the same problems Morgan does, it appears that the market is at the beginning of a period where, for many people. getting money from these facilities will come to an end.
Since consumers are already faced with high commodities and oil prices, costly credit, and falling home and stock values, the home-equity loan was one of the last places people could turn for capital.
The news is almost certainly bad for retailers and auto companies. Consumer access to capital seems to be shrinking by the day. Cutting off home-equity withdrawals may take balance sheet risk away for Morgan and its peers, but their customers will get squeezed even harder than the economy is squeezing them now.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures were lower Friday morning, a day after a selloff triggered by housing data. Today investors are bracing for more housing data at 10:00 a.m. EDT after already hearing that foreclosures soared 121% during the second quarter. Other point of interest will be durable goods data reported an hour before the opening bell. Meanwhile, oil continued the steady climb that started Thursday as the dollar weakens, trading above $126 a barrel. It's Friday, and no many earnings reports are due.
While there aren't many earnings reports today, there are a few including Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) among others.
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) shares are tanking over 44% to $5 after after it cut its earnings outlook significantly on softer demand for its plastic shoes. With all those knockoffs around, is it any wonder? Robert W. Baird downgraded Crocs from Outperform to Neutral, slashing the target price from $21 to $5.
Meanwhile, Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) surged 12% in premarket trading after the company not only beat estimates when reporting quarterly results Thursday, but also increased its sales forecast for the third-quarter much higher than analyst estimates. Friedman Billings and Citigroup both upgraded Juniper to Outperform and Buy respectively.
In deal news, Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) shareholders on Thursday approved a $17.9 billion takeover by private equity funds Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital. This ends the 20-month long effort.
When UK mortgage lender HBOS Plc went to market to raise capital, the outcome was a bust. The company sold only about 8% of the securities. In the end, HBOS's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- were stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted paper.
In light of this, it's going to be tough for UK financial institutions to bolster their balance sheets. But there is an alternative: private equity.
In fact, it looks like The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is taking a look at Paragon, a UK mortgage lender. It appears that Paragon is opening up its books to engage in some initial due diligence.
Of course, this is still nascent, and deals can easily fall apart, especially in tough markets. However, investors are certainly excited. In London trading, Paragon's shares spiked 23%.
Even so, the value of Paragon is still down 87% over the past year, so it should be no surprise that the private equity folks sense opportunity.
HBOS Plc is the largest mortgage operator in the UK. And yes, it needs lots of money to shore up its balance sheet.
Unfortunately, raising capital has turned out to be an extremely tough task.
When HBOS engaged in a rights offering, only about 8% of outside investors subscribed. As a result, the company's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- are now stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted securities.
Since this was a firm commitment offering, HBOS was able to get its much-needed cash.
However, the problem is that this deal is likely to chill further investment in the UK banking sector. After all, who would want to take on the risk?
Thus, while there may be more capital infusions from private equity firms, which have large amounts of capital, no doubt their term sheets are likely to be quite onerous.
M&A activity is heading for the dust bin. The should put additional pressure on the earnings of big Wall St. banks and brokerages. According to the FT," KPMG's Global M&A Predictor – an index that looks at 1,000 companies and the ratio of their share price to earnings – is forecasting a decrease in both appetite and capacity of companies to make deals."
The major reason for a potential shift in M&A sentiment is the failing P&L prospects of many companies as the economy falls under more and more pressure. Who wants to buy a company which is likely to do poorly?
Short-term, the real burden of the fall-off in deals will be investment banking operations. With the financial fortunes of many firms like Lehman (NYSE:LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) already in enough trouble to cause worries about whether they can stay independent, losing most of their fees for merger advisory service comes at an especially hard time.
When it rains, it pours.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The New York Times reports that since we've had such a catastrophic run with home mortgages, it's time to watch the collapse of commercial ones. The same names surface when it comes to the collapse of our financial system -- in the case of commercial mortgages Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) ($25.1 billion), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($22.1 billion), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($40 billion in commercial mortgages and property), and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) ($19.1 billion) are among the biggest holders. They are also big names in Auction Rate Securities (ARS).
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning, pointing to a weaker start Thursday following a reprieve Wednesday. Concerns over financials toll center stage again as oil continued to swing higher. Some economic data released later today may affect trading as well: Philadelphia-area poll of activity for August, leading indicators for July and weekly jobless claims.
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In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near.
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, 
When UK mortgage lender HBOS Plc 
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